Today we're going to examine some of the factors involved in picking losers. Spotting weak favourites to lay on a betting exchange is not quite as easy as it sounds and if you get it wrong your betting bank could take a serious hit.
Try to focus on horses that are short priced favourites - otherwise you could find yourself needing four or five successful bets in order to break even. In the summer months there can be more than thirty races per day and you could spend hours and hours looking through the form before you even know which race you would like to bet on.
To start with, cross out all race cards that have a forecast priced favourite of over 2/1. You could then narrow down your search by looking at the selection box in the Racing Post newspaper. This gives you the opinion of which horse has the best chance of winning from 15 professional tipsters. If you find a race where the favourites is 2/1 or less and has 6 or less tipsters thinking it will win then this is definitely a horse to look more closely at. After this you will find that you search for a losing favourite has been narrowed down quite considerably you may only have half a dozen considered possible lays. The next thing to do is to look into the form of the horse in more detail and see how many negatives you can find against the horse winning. Here’s what to look for:
The Horse’s Last Race
After the horse's name on the race card you will see a number. This indicates the number of days since its last run. If the horse has not run for more than 45 days then you can definitely mark this down as a negative. A horse’s Stamina is an important consideration in horse racing and horses often need a run before performing to their best. You may also come across a favourite that has never run before and it is only the favourite because it is coming from a decent stable or has a top jockey booking.
Distance
If you click on the horses name on the racingpost website you will get a record of the horses previous runs. Look for the distance the horse has been running and winning on. If the horse is running at a distance that it has not run on previously then consider this a negative. For example; from 7f to 1m4f (1 mile = 8 furlongs).
Surfaces
New surfaces can result in a horse performing badly. If the horse has been winning on an all-weather track and is running on turf for the first time or the other way around, you can consider this a negative.
The Going
Look to see if the horse prefers soft or firm ground as this can dramatically influence the horse’s performance. If the horse has been winning on soft ground, and will be running on fast ground today, you can consider this to be a serious negative.
Class
Another important factor to consider is the class that the horse will be racing in. A horse stepping up in class - from class F to class C for example will have tougher competition to contend with and you can also consider this a negative. Looking back through the form can often help you to see a trend in poor performances if the horse has been stepped up in class.
Weight
Look at the weight that the horse will be carrying. Has it won with this amount of weight before? Has it been well handicapped for previous wins? If the horse is carrying anything above an extra 7lb, it could be worth opposing.
The Competition
Finally, assess the competition. Ask yourself: are there at least two other horses in the field whose winning chances rival the favourite? The competition ultimately determines whether the horse will win or lose. If after finding serious negatives against the favourite you can not see any serious competition, it is worth leaving this race alone.
All of this is very good advice but can be very time consuming. Want to lay horses successfully without spending hours studying form? We recommend The Cherry Lay System.
Thursday, 3 December 2009
Wednesday, 2 December 2009
Some Thoughts On Loss Retrieval for Layers
One of the main methods of loss retrieval as a layer is the ‘stop at a winner’ system. When you first experience a degree of success laying horse racing selections on the betting exchanges, it is easy to consider yourself as successful and consistent as a bookie; after all, you are in effect acting like a bookie and you never see a poor bookie do you? Then you are rudely awakened back into reality with a shock as the no hoper you wanted to make £10 on scrambles over the line first and you have to pay out £400 of your hard earned cash! Whenever you take just one bet on an event, you are not a bookie, but a bettor backing something to lose. Therefore, loss retrieval systems have got as much chance of succeeding long term as before, i.e., precisely no chance.
The ’stop at a winner’ method was primarily designed for horse racing, and involves deciding what your daily target profit will be (for example, £100). You then take stakes of that amount on the favourite. If it loses, you have won your target amount for the day and can go down the pub. If it wins, you take the loss amount and add to it your target for the day. You then take a bet on the next favourite. You basically keep going until you win, or until the favourites keep winning until you run out of money!
For Example:
First race you take £50 bet on Horse A the 2.1 favourite in a modest handicap race. Liability £60.50 if he wins. He does... On to the next race, you take losses so far (£60.50), add £50 target, so take a bet of £100.50 on the 3.5 favourite, Horse B, in a 1 mile nursery. Oh dear, Horse B wins and costs you £276.25! Undaunted, you take your losses so far (£276.25) and add the £50 target. You decide to pick the 2nd favourite in a handicap race this time because you think that’ll do the trick. So you take £326.25 on Horse C at odds of 6.8 (liability £1892.25). Horse C wins! You’re in a fortunate position because you had a £10,000 bank - including £3000 following 3 successful months of profit using this loss retrieval method. You briefly consider returning to a £50 stake and taking the loss but know in your heart of hearts that this bad run cannot continue much longer. Back to the betting and the favourite in the next race is odds on at odds of 1.8. At least you don’t have to risk as much money this time, and you think the horse, Horse D, is overrated. So you take the losses so far (£1892.25) and add the target amount yet again to take a bet of £1942.25 (liability £1553.80). Your heart sinks to your feet as the favourite romps home, and after 4 straight pay-outs your losses amount to £3496.05. The favourite in the next race is trading at odds of 3.2, if you took the losses and added the target again, you’d be taking a bet of £3546.05 at odds of 3.2 (liability £7801.31). Before you took that bet you’d have to top up your bank, which is now down to £6453.95.
Could you do it?
Although this example is quite extreme, it doesn’t really matter how long it takes to reach 4 straight pay-outs because it will get there at some point. The pattern for all loss retrieval systems is that lots of small gains are interspersed with infrequent but massive losses. All loss retrieval systems rely on one of the most enduring myths associated with gambling - that because something happened in the past the chances of it happening again have reduced. In other words because the favourite has won each of the last 3 races, the chances must be less of it happening again. When you consider how quickly the losses stack up when a run of pay-outs begins, I would say it’s even more vital that lay bettors avoid loss retrieval systems altogether.
You could reduce the chances of a payout by analysing the event to see if you could identify an edge - something that you think you know that others don’t. In the example of horse racing, perhaps you could avoid taking bets unless you thought the favourite was a ’false’ favourite, and that at least 3 or 4 other horses had an equal
chance of winning.
That’s the beginning of a sound strategy in selecting the horses you want to take bets on. But in the end it will come down to your opinion against the backer as to which one of you secures the ‘value bet’ based on the odds and the outcome. If you’ve got an edge it will quickly be apparent. If you have not, no amount of loss retrieval will save you.
To find a great way to profit from laying horses, visit The Cherry lay System.
The ’stop at a winner’ method was primarily designed for horse racing, and involves deciding what your daily target profit will be (for example, £100). You then take stakes of that amount on the favourite. If it loses, you have won your target amount for the day and can go down the pub. If it wins, you take the loss amount and add to it your target for the day. You then take a bet on the next favourite. You basically keep going until you win, or until the favourites keep winning until you run out of money!
For Example:
First race you take £50 bet on Horse A the 2.1 favourite in a modest handicap race. Liability £60.50 if he wins. He does... On to the next race, you take losses so far (£60.50), add £50 target, so take a bet of £100.50 on the 3.5 favourite, Horse B, in a 1 mile nursery. Oh dear, Horse B wins and costs you £276.25! Undaunted, you take your losses so far (£276.25) and add the £50 target. You decide to pick the 2nd favourite in a handicap race this time because you think that’ll do the trick. So you take £326.25 on Horse C at odds of 6.8 (liability £1892.25). Horse C wins! You’re in a fortunate position because you had a £10,000 bank - including £3000 following 3 successful months of profit using this loss retrieval method. You briefly consider returning to a £50 stake and taking the loss but know in your heart of hearts that this bad run cannot continue much longer. Back to the betting and the favourite in the next race is odds on at odds of 1.8. At least you don’t have to risk as much money this time, and you think the horse, Horse D, is overrated. So you take the losses so far (£1892.25) and add the target amount yet again to take a bet of £1942.25 (liability £1553.80). Your heart sinks to your feet as the favourite romps home, and after 4 straight pay-outs your losses amount to £3496.05. The favourite in the next race is trading at odds of 3.2, if you took the losses and added the target again, you’d be taking a bet of £3546.05 at odds of 3.2 (liability £7801.31). Before you took that bet you’d have to top up your bank, which is now down to £6453.95.
Could you do it?
Although this example is quite extreme, it doesn’t really matter how long it takes to reach 4 straight pay-outs because it will get there at some point. The pattern for all loss retrieval systems is that lots of small gains are interspersed with infrequent but massive losses. All loss retrieval systems rely on one of the most enduring myths associated with gambling - that because something happened in the past the chances of it happening again have reduced. In other words because the favourite has won each of the last 3 races, the chances must be less of it happening again. When you consider how quickly the losses stack up when a run of pay-outs begins, I would say it’s even more vital that lay bettors avoid loss retrieval systems altogether.
You could reduce the chances of a payout by analysing the event to see if you could identify an edge - something that you think you know that others don’t. In the example of horse racing, perhaps you could avoid taking bets unless you thought the favourite was a ’false’ favourite, and that at least 3 or 4 other horses had an equal
chance of winning.
That’s the beginning of a sound strategy in selecting the horses you want to take bets on. But in the end it will come down to your opinion against the backer as to which one of you secures the ‘value bet’ based on the odds and the outcome. If you’ve got an edge it will quickly be apparent. If you have not, no amount of loss retrieval will save you.
To find a great way to profit from laying horses, visit The Cherry lay System.
Tuesday, 1 December 2009
An Introduction To Laying Horses
Bookies have been laying bets on horses to lose ever since horse racing began. As bettors speculating on a selected horse, we are actually involved with laying horses every time we have a bet. We are simply on the other end of the transaction. To back a horse, there will always be somebody who must lay the bet. Yet so many people think they are unfamiliar with laying horses, so they shy away from it entirely.
Laying bets on a betting exchange is not some kind of mystical art. Traditionally it has always been the bookies who have taken on the role of laying bets. This norm is something we are all used to, and comfortable with. But let’s examine the mechanics of placing a bet:
In this example, let’s assume we are going to back a horse called Sunset Prince at a price of 4/1 and for a stake of £5. We approach a bookie and this is what we are offering: we are prepared to risk our stake of £5 on the chance of this horse Sunset Prince winning the race. The price we are happy to accept is 4/1 - If the horse loses, we will give the bookie our stake money. However, if the horse wins we shall take our stake back, and furthermore, we require that the bookie gives us four times our stake money as profit. In placing this bet, we are of the opinion that this horse will win – it stands to reason, if we didn’t think it would win, we would not risk our stake money.
I make no excuses if my explanation of placing a bet is perfectly obvious to everybody. As I said earlier, we are all totally familiar with this standard type of betting transaction. Don’t forget, in order for a bet to be struck, the bookie must also agree to the terms on the table. To lay the bet at the price of 4/1, the bookie is happy to risk four times our stake. To take our bet, the bookie is of the opinion that Sunset Prince will NOT win the race. If the bookie thought the horse was going to win, he would not accept our bet, or at least he certainly would not wish to risk so much money, and would not agree to a bet at 4/1 Hopefully you can see that the only difference between a bettor and a bookie is their opinion of who will win the race – we think Sunset Prince will win, and the bookie disagrees, and we are BOTH prepared to put our money where our mouth is.
In effect, where a bettor is betting that a horse will win, a bookie is simply betting that the horse will NOT win. It is no more complicated than that. Nothing devious, and nothing untoward. Since the emergence of Betfair as the major betting exchange, we all have the opportunity to play the role of bookie. Betting exchanges are simply a forum where you can find other bettors who hold the opposing view to you, and match their bets. If you turn out to have the better judgement, then you will win. If your ‘opposite’ on the betting exchange turns out to be right, then you will lose, and you will have to pay them their dues. It is no more complicated than that.
When all is said and done, laying horses to lose may still not suit your betting temperament. But hopefully you now have the confidence to find out more. Despite what you may have heard or read, making money by laying a selection is no simpler than trying to profit by backing a selection. There is in fact absolutely no difference in terms of risk. As a bettor, if you are happy to put some money behind your opinion that a horse will win, there is absolutely no reason you shouldn’t also give yourself the opportunity to profit, if you feel a certain horse will not win a given race.
Find out how to profit from laying horses with The Cherry Lay System.
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